Upfronts is the presentation that takes place each year in New York City in May where the television networks pitch their upcoming television schedules to ad buyers, attempting to sell the bulk of their commercial time (and also start creating buzz for their new shows, or measure the lack thereof). So it’s usually (but not always) the deadline by which executives decide to cancel/renew shows (though it’s usually decided sooner, it’s public at Upfronts). While cable networks (and increasingly, websites with digital shows) have been getting in on the action with their own Upfronts presentation, this series of posts will focus on the Big 4 (+CW).
In Part 1, I looked at the pilots under contention to be picked up to series at each of the networks.
In this post, I’ll take a look at the current schedule for the nearly-ended 2015-16 season (scripted shows only) to see which shows are likely to come back, and which aren’t likely to survive. Coming up in future posts, I’ll go network-by-network to see how I would schedule each of them for the upcoming television season.
ABC
Renewed:
-Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
-Fresh off the Boat
-Once Upon a TIme
-Black-ish
-The Middle
-How to Get Away with Murder
-The Goldbergs
-Grey’s Anatomy
-Scandal
-Modern Family
Cancelled/de facto Cancelled:
-Wicked City
-Of Kings and Prophets
-Blood & Oil
Predictions:
-Castle It lost it’s female lead and a supporting character. ABC is looking to cut costs for a show and that’s not something you do on a show you’re just looking to ditch. Look for this show to return if a new contract can be worked out with star Nathan Fillion.
-American Crime Toss up. Low-rated, but critically acclaimed. ABC may want to hold on to this one to continue their relationship with Oscar-winner John Ridley (12 Years a Slave) and to keep an award-winning, prestige show now that Scandal/Modern Family are over the Emmys hump.
-The Catch Not an outright bomb, but this latest Shondaland outing has been mostly ignored. A short second season order may come about in order to keep things collegial with Shonda Rhimes.
-The Real O’Neals Another show getting meh ratings. At this point though, meh ratings may be enough to warrant a short second-season. Wouldn’t hate another as the surreal bits in the show have made me a regular viewer. Renew it.
-Last Man Standing Its consistency on Friday nights will bring it back for another season..
-Agent Carter I really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, REALLY hope this comes back for another season. Wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t given its second season ratings slid from its already nothing-to-write-home-about season 1 ratings, but damn if this isn’t an utterly well-rounded,intelligent, adult, damn fine show.
-Nashville Short 5th season order is the way to go. Full season if ABC is really desperate.
-The Family Dead show walking.
-The Muppets A critical and commercial failure. Bury it
-Dr. Ken Toss-up. It does okay on Friday nights, but that’s a pretty damn low bar.
-Galavant One of the most surprising renewals of last season. Extremely unlikely to perform a second miracle now that the ABC executive that championed the show has been replaced.
CBS
Renewed:
-Elementary
-Hawaii Five-0
-NCIS: Los Angeles
-Blue Bloods
-Madam Secretary
-2 Broke Girls
-Mom
-Scorpion
-NCIS: New Orleans
-NCIS
-The Big Bang Theory
Cancelled/Ending:
-Angel from Hell
-Mike & Molly
-The Good Wife
-Person of Interest (final season airing in Summer)
Predictions:
-Life In Pieces CBS’s second highest-rated comedy, highest-rated new comedy of the season. Renewal is just a formality now
-Supergirl Worst show I watched last year, but its numbers are good—and consistent—enough for a renewal
-Criminal Minds Last-minute contract-wrangling is the only thing keeping this from being renewed
-Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders Good-enough numbers for a renewal
-The Odd Couple Steady performer getting ratings right around CBS’s scripted average. Renewal looks likely.
-Limitless Faded in the last half of its season, but may still have a pulse yet.
-Code Black Prognosis: Not great, but may escape death.
-Rush Hour Will quietly play out its remaining episodes and be quickly forgotten.
-CSI: Cyber It’s dead, stick a fork in it
CW
The CW took what may have been an unprecedented step and renewed its entire slate of shows that had aired an episode. Yep, even the lowest-rated broadcast television show on the air, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend. The only show awaiting its fate is Containment. They must’ve not been very confident in it to slate it for a late-Spring premiere (granted they gave it the network’s strongest lead-in with The Flash). If it pulls consistently decent numbers (0.5ish 18-49 rating) they may keep it alive, even if just for a Summer run). Of course this causes problems when trying to make room on the schedule for new shows come Fall. But better to have that as your problem than having too much holes in your schedule from shows that bombed.
Renewed: Crazy Ex-Girlfriend; Reign; Jane the Virgin; The Vampire Diaries; iZombie; The 100; DC’s Legends of Tomorrow; The Originals; Supernatural; Arrow; The Flash
Predictions:
-Containment It got an okay 0.5 premiere rating, however it doesn’t have the cachet of CW’s other low-rated shows which are award-winning (really) and critically-acclaimed. Also, it comes from the WB which doesn’t help. Long version: CW is co-owned by CBS & WB, the best-performing shows on the CW come from WB while the lower-rated ones are CBS productions, whose existences are effectively subsidized to keep up appearances of CW being co-owned. A lower-rated CBS show has a better chance of survival than a WB one because of this. Prospects, based on one episode, look murky.
FOX
Renewed:
-New Girl
-Rosewood
-Lucifer
-Scream Queens
-Bob’s Burgers
-Bones
-The Last Man on Earth
-Brooklyn Nine-Nine
-Gotham
-The Simpsons
-Empire
Cancelled/Ending:
-Minority Report
Predictions:
-The X-Files The only thing deciding if this returns is if the actors playing Mulder and Scully decide they’re game for another season
-Family Guy The only thing holding up a formal renewal is contract-wrangling (not atypical for older shows)
-Grandfathered It’s the least low-rated of FOX’s low-rated rookie comedies. This may eke out a renewal on inauspicious qualification, but I say kill it. Start with a clean slate. It’s doubtful 0.9 ratings will do much next year, even if just a schedule filler for shows that bomb even worse.
-Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life Dead show walking
-Bordertown ” “
-The Grinder FOX may renew this warmly-received comedy basis on its critical merits. I wouldn’t hold my breath.
-Sleepy Hollow Kill it. This show is unwatchable now and having lost one of the few not-shittified things in the show will make a 4th season unbearable. FOX may give it a shortened finale season order just to have *something* to stick on Fridays, but just roll the dice rather than make fans of the show suffer though another season of what used to be an entertaining show.
-Second Chance It’s basically cancelled. No second chances here (sorry, couldn’t help myself)
NBC
Renewed:
-Grimm
-Shades of Blue
-The Blacklist
-Superstore
-Chicago PD
-Law & Order: SVU
-Chicago Med
-Chicago Fire
-Blindspot
Cancelled/de facto Cancelled:
-Truth be Told
-The Player
-Heroes Reborn
-You, Me, and the Apocalypse
Predictions:
-Crowded It does okay on Sundays, but it’s doubtful its ratings/reviews will convince the powers that be at NBC to bring it back for a second season.
-The Carmichael Show Also draws marginal ratings, but warmly received by critics, and the closest thing NBC has a to a buzzy comedy. Things look good for TCS.
-The Mysteries of Laura The mystery continues, how is this show still alive? It draws decent, downright good viewership but skews older and, thus, suffers from consistently low 18-49 viewership. Still, it’s pretty damn consistent in leading off the night for NBC. Bring it back for another not-quite-full season order until NBC finds something better to take its place on Wednesdays
-Game of Silence Only 2 episodes in, it will not live long
-Heartbeat Another one looking to have a short life on TV
-Undateable This unwatchable show did numbers right on the edge of cancellation throughout its Friday run. I wouldn’t be surprised either way, but cancel this awful show
-Telenovela It’s conceivable this show could come back, but doesn’t look likely. Depends how strong NBC’s comedy pilots are
AVthatsme 